- Crypto betting platform Polymarket has consistently predicted the outcomes of complex events better than supposed experts.
- Polymarket’s U.S. future remains uncertain as it wrestles with restrictive gambling laws.
The Biggest Winner from Biden’s Drop Out? A Crypto Betting Platform
An already eventful and contentious 2024 U.S. election cycle kicked into high gear on Sunday, July 21, 2024.
Early in the afternoon, President Biden withdrew as the Democrat candidate against Republican nominee Donald Trump.
While this event unleashed a flurry of speculation about Biden’s replacement, the biggest winner was Polymarket, a blockchain-based betting platform.
Polymarket odds for Joe Biden dropping out had started at 22.5% when the first bets on this event were placed.
This was far above the odds suggested by U.S. political and election experts at the time.
As Biden’s health became the top story after a disastrous debate performance, this event saw the biggest bets placed on Polymarket.
Even as political pundits and Biden’s own team stated that Biden would not drop out, the Polymarket odds still priced in a 66% chance that he would.
As Biden confirmed his exit on Sunday, Polymarket’s effective analysis and big paydays became a major story in its own right.
What Is Polymarket?
Polymarket is a decentralized betting platform that operates on the Ethereum blockchain.
Bets are based around events, which must be established according to the clear rules of the platform.
Bettors can then wager on various potential outcomes for the event and be rewarded if their prediction comes true.
Since Polymarket’s launch in 2020, more than $260 million in wagers have been placed on events related to the 2024 U.S. elections.
While prediction markets are nothing new, Polymarket’s zero-fee structure, transparency and lack of restrictions have made it a top destination.
Alongside political events, Polymarket is also known for its robust set of wagers on crypto-related events.
“The trend is clear: people understand what’s going on in the world better because Polymarket exists. Enough of the talking heads and news-by-algorithm. We’re in a misinformation pandemic, and Polymarket presents a novel information format that is driven by financial incentives for truth, rather than engagement baiting. People want unbiased information. Polymarket delivers.”
– Shayne Coplan, CEO of Polymarket, stated.
The Future of Predictions with Polymarket
While Polymarket allows for wagers to be placed on a wide range of events, U.S. political wagers are its most popular topic.
This popularity is despite the fact that it is illegal to bet on political events in the U.S.
These restrictions force Polymarket to operate as an offshore betting platform outside the purview of U.S. regulations.
Some betting platforms have avoided these restrictions by arguing that they are used for academic purposes, but this includes strict limits on the size of wagers.
However, there is significant pushback from Polymarket and its supporters, who argue that these platforms are an essential source of information for citizens.
Polymarket’s recent performance during Biden’s withdrawal may be the catalyst that forces a re-examination of the role of betting markets in the digital age.
